Estimation is challenging. And humans appear to be hardwired to be optimists. THis briefing covers some of the work in removing estimate bias and strategic misrepresentation. Additionally it illustrates some of the ways SEER models and models in general can help. ICEAA Removing Estimation Bias. Key points include:
Experts are likely providing biased estimates
Poor estimates are a root cause of project failure
Estimates can be better, squelching bias & strategic misestimation… Parametrics help.